Observe this, Mr. Annan. Decide something, Mr. Putin
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It appears that Mohamed Morsi, the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood will go to a run off presidential election probably against a former Primer Minister Ahmed Shafiq according to the data available in Al Jazeera when I was writing this comment, because it appeared that the other hopeful candidate, the socialist and nationalist Hamdeen Sabahi, was in the third place for a brief difference with Shafiq. But the positions could change because the recounts were in process in the big cities where this two last candidates have more strength.
What does mean all this?
Well, if the Muslim Brotherhood wins the run-off and Morsi becomes the next president of Egypt, an historic change for the Country.
If the opponent is Shafiq an he wins, it would be almost like come back to Mubarak with some changes, cosmetic or transitional, but in any case, at the shade of the military.
If the opponent is Sabahi, less, probable, it will be come back as he promised to the ideals of the late Nasser, the socialist, nationalist, lay, leader remembered as a hero and a fighter for the dignity of the Arab World who died in 1970. The problem is to know in this mix of socialism and nationalism what is the strongest component and what does mean exactly for them nationalism.
There is something urgent for the people in Egypt: to stop the wave of crimes insecurity and fear in the society. The police and military state who crushed protests in the beginning of the “Spring”, are now doing almost nothing against crime. Maybe a strategy of the party of Shafiq, who presented himself as the personification of the restoration of law an order in the streets and being in the circles of the former regime can control the Armed Forces?
In this the Muslim Brotherhood has a handicap, because there is fear of unrest because of his religious views between the lays, the non muslims and the moderate muslims. Morsi would had to demonstrate that he can be the president of all the Egyptians in this run.off campaign. The line of Shafiq will be easy to preview: law an order. But then it can be a big sense of defeat of the “Egyptian Spring”. All that blood to end in the hands of the last Prime Minister of the so difficultly ousted Mubarak?