Letter from an African coastal village
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The Egyptian spring has become a wild tornado. Now, in the eve of the runoff presidential election, Egypt’s military rulers dissolved Parliament, situated security forces around the building and didn’t let anyone to enter the building even the elected lawmakers as a result of a rule of a court ruling they invalidated the first democratically elected legislature of the Country due to some irregularities.
This is the technical explanation of what’s happening, but what’s the people feeling is other story according to media, blogs and interviews or analysis.
First: the timing: left the Country without parliament in the eve of the decisive presidential elections between the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood Mohamed Morsi and the last Prime Minister of the ousted ex-president Hosni Mubarak Ahmed Shafik, is not seen for anyone as a coincidence, but as political movement by a court with judges appointed by the same Mubarak. And is sure that the candidate Shafik has a lot more influence with the Armed Forces (the real power in Egypt) and the institutions appointed by Mubarak and the military than the candidate Morsi who has the majority in the Parliament now dissolved.
Second: In the circles of Shafik, the move of the dissolution of the Parliament was celebrated as an electoral victory.
Third: After some doubts, the Muslim Brotherhood decided to go to vote and try to win the elections in this conditions, but announced a peaceful resistance if they lose, because they consider already the consult manipulated.
Forth: People who made Egypt’s Spring and struggled in the Tahir Square, so many time ago are so tired they don’t know exactly how to react to what’s happening and what to do when the pools open saturday and sunday.
Fifth: There is an institutional problem. If there is no Parliament and they elect a President, he will be a sort of Pharaoh? All the powers for him? there will be another legislative election after the presidential election? it depends of who wins? Too much questions.
In short: There is now not only a social chaos but an institutional chaos. It seems that the military are doing whatever they can to make impossible the victory of the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood. This makes me think that if he wins will have almost impossible the access to power if the military refuse to accept the situation which is what it seem is happening now. The situation is not anymore a “Spring” but a destructive and unpredictable Tornado. In other countries this components have been the recipe of a civil war. Let’s hope that Egypt can save itself of that disaster and make possible that the Tornado don’t touch ground. The next days are decisive.