President Putin from Russia was alone defending Al Assad in the G8 Summit in Enniskillen, Northern Ireland. After a two hours meeting with President Obama from the US, they looked tense and didn’t change their positions, with only one point in common: to try to convene a peace conference.
But that conference of peace is a very difficult task to do with the rebels not willing to go, and Al Assad, with his last advances in the battle ground, not needing to go, and the two main foreign organizers in opposite sides.
The problem here is that the western powers want the Al Assad regime toppled by the opposition. They already recognized the opposition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian People. But now the opposition is an amalgam of political parties and fighting groups. Among the fighting groups there are some under control, some uncontrolled, some definitely radical and with terrorist strategies and ideologies. For the western countries is a problem to arm the opposition against Al Assad knowing that the weapons can end at the hands of radical groups. So arming the opposition is seen as a dangerous option.
But at the other hand Russia is sending weapons to Al Assad, who has already a superiority over the rebels and the help of the Hezbollah fighters. And at this moment, with time and the help of more weapons, the western countries’ indecision and the opposition’s fragmentation, he can win the war and stay in power.
And what would happen then? Syria would be a disaster because by now there are an estimate 100,000 casualties and by the end of the war the death toll will be much more higher. The Country, its cities are destroyed. There is violence in neighbour countries. There are millions internal displaced people and more than a million of refugees across the borders. It will be the danger of revenges. All the horrors of the war and the post war.
This will happen in any case but if Al Assad stays, then the western countries and the Arab League that back the opposition will have a big diplomatic problem, with a regime they don’t recognize in power, but at the moment is recognized by the UN.
But this is the least of the problems. The big problem here is the Syrian’s people situation. People can’t resist no more. There is an urgent need of stopping the war and the violence that is lasting too much and is – like the UN recently said – reaching unprecedentedly levels of brutality.
After the meeting between Obama and Putin in Enniskillen, and looking at the body language of the two leaders, the hopes are fading. They said they agree to organize a peace conference on Syria but they are in opposite sides in this conflict and the talks are not promising. And once again. Nobody is talking at least publicly, about a cease-fire prior to hold the talks, something the Syrian people need more than anything.
- Rebels get Saudi missiles (arabtimesonline.com)
- Putin backs Assad and warns west against arming Syrian rebels (guardian.co.uk)
- G8 summit: 7 vs. 1 over backing Syria (cnn.com)